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A stationary autoregressive model of order one can be written as

[[math]] y_t = \beta_0 + \beta_1y_{t-1} + \epsilon_t, \, t = 1,2, \ldots [[/math]]

Determine which of the following statements about this model is false

  • The parameter [math]\beta_0[/math] must not equal 1.
  • The absolute value of the parameter [math]\beta_1[/math] must be less than 1.
  • If the parameter [math]\beta_1 = 0[/math], then the model reduces to a white noise process.
  • If the parameter [math]β_1 = 1,[/math] then the model is a random walk.
  • Only the immediate past value, [math]y_{t−1}[/math], is used as a predictor for [math]y_t[/math].

Copyright 2023. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois. Reproduced with permission.

  • Created by Admin, May 25'23

You are given the following six observed values of the autoregressive model of order one time series

[[math]] y_t = \beta_0 + \beta_1 y_{t-1} + \epsilon_t [[/math]]

t 1 2 3 4 5 6
yt 31 35 37 41 45 51


with [math]\operatorname{Var}(\epsilon_t) = \sigma^2 [/math].

The approximation to the conditional least squares method is used to estimate [math]β_0[/math] and [math]β_1[/math] .

Calculate the mean squared error [math]s^2[/math] that estimates [math]σ^2.[/math]

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Copyright 2023. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois. Reproduced with permission.

  • Created by Admin, May 25'23

You are given a stationary AR(1) model,

[[math]] y_t = \beta_0 + \beta_1 y_{t-1} + \epsilon_t, \, t = 2, \ldots, T [[/math]]

Determine which or the following is always true.

  • [math]\beta_0 \neq 0 [/math]
  • [math]\beta_0 = 1[/math]
  • [math]\beta_1 = 0[/math]
  • [math]\beta_1 = 1[/math]
  • [math]|\beta_1| \lt 1[/math]

Copyright 2023. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois. Reproduced with permission.

  • Created by Admin, May 25'23